Market Commentary: One-year Inflation Rate Accelerates and Job Openings Hit All-Time High
U.S. consumer prices continued to go up faster than normal. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.6% last month and has now increased 5.0% over last year (Figure 1). Used car and truck prices rose 7.3% last month and are 29.7% higher over the last year. New car prices increased 1.6%, and …
Market Commentary: Amid Hiring Challenges, Hourly Earnings Rise, Some Unemployment Benefits Cut
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 559,000 last month (Figure 1). This is much better than last month’s 278,000, but much lower than March’s 785,000 gain. Workers are returning to the labor force more slowly than expected. Businesses are reporting challenges in finding workers. Leisure and hospital …
Market Commentary: A Muddled Economic Picture, Volatile Markets and Rising Inflation
The U.S. economic picture is looking more muddled than expected. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% last week. Used automobile prices rose quickly in response to the semiconductor shortage limiting new car production and demographic trends boosting demand. Retail sales were expected to bui …
Market Commentary: April Jobs Report Disappoints, Falling Short of Expectations
The U.S. job market added only 266,000 jobs in April, missing expectations of nearly 1 million. March’s gain of more than 900,000 new jobs was revised down to 770,000. The data show the U.S. job market slowed rather than accelerated in April. The leisure and hospitality industry experience …
Market Commentary: GDP Surges After Stimulus, Fed Reiterates Low Interest Rates
U.S. GDP surged an annualized 6.4% in the first quarter (Figure 1). Two rounds of government stimulus helped the economy climb within 0.9% of its all-time high. If expected growth is included, the economy remains 3.7% below pre-COVID trends. Personal income jumped 21.1% from February as a …
Market Commentary: S&P Shows Strong Growth as Housing Prices Continue to Climb
S&P 500 earnings are exceeding elevated expectations. Before earnings season began, S&P 500 earnings were expected to grow 23.6% as businesses rallied from lower earnings during the COVID shutdowns from one year ago. Based on the first quarter of companies reporting, earnings are n …
Market Commentary: Initial Jobless Claims at the Lowest in a Year, Retail Sales Surged
The U.S. economy seems to be returning to firmer footing based on economic data released last week. Initial jobless claims fell to 576,000 and are the lowest they have been since mid-March 2020. The number of people receiving some form of government jobless support dropped from 18.2 millio …
The Promise of the Biotech Industry and What It Could Mean to Investors
I bet you’ve never heard of Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (DEB). It’s a rare disease where a person’s skin falls off! Areas that are often rubbed, like your elbow from sitting at a table or your thighs from wearing pants, become a constant battle. It’s painful, and patients suffer from f …
Market Commentary: Inflation Could Be On the Horizon, Service Businesses Make a Comeback
Producer prices climbed 4.2% last week (Figure 1). Energy prices contributed to the largest gain since the index rose 4.5% in September 2011. The jobs market continues to see a high level of initial jobless claims while steady progress is being made in reducing the number of unemployed rec …
Market Commentary: Inflation Could Be On the Horizon, Service Businesses Make a Comeback
Producer prices climbed 4.2% last week (Figure 1). Energy prices contributed to the largest gain since the index rose 4.5% in September 2011. The jobs market continues to see a high level of initial jobless claims while steady progress is being made in reducing the number of unemployed rec …
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2024 Market Outlook Report
Will the bull market continue in 2024? What about a recession? What will the Fed do? We take a deep dive into our outlook for 2024 in Carson Investment Research’s Outlook ‘24: Seeing Eye to Eye.